Food prices and market volatility: the variables involved

Since the second half of 2010, market prices of agricultural commodities have started to grow very quickly: during the period between July 2010 and February 2011, the FAO Food Price Index rose by 38%, reaching a peak level higher than the one recorded during the 2008 food crisis. In 12 months, from June 2010 to June 2011, the price of cereals alone rose by 71%. In addition, there is an alarming increase in the volatility of prices, with rapid and very marked swings going up and down daily, even within the same session, which, of course, creates uncertainty and instability in the markets. Another worrying fact is the standard deviation, a measure of volatility, which in the last 5 years has more than doubled as compared to the pr evious 15 years (29.3 compared to 13.5).

New geopolitical and economic challenges

According to recent FAO estimates, today there are about 925 million people who suffer from hunger in the world. In 2010, this number dropped slightly by 98 million people, with respect to the past, representing a very positive trend. This is the result of a more favorable global economic situation and of the reduction of food prices vs. the 2008 peaks. In evaluating the situation over a longer time scale, it is not possible to disregard the major deterioration of the global scenario which has occurred over the last fifteen years. Out of a population of about 6.9 billion people, those who suffer from hunger account for 13.4%.

The discussion about the need to broaden the horizon of indicators for the governance of society and the economy, in particular for the measurement of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has been going on for some time, and has recently aroused a widespread process of reflection. It has by now been largely demonstrated how economic analyses based exclusively on the GDP can often be misleading. In this context, the idea is spreading on many levels that the overall well-being of individuals depends on a large number of variables, including aspects linked to lifestyles, diet choices, safeguards of health and the environment, etc., that cannot be represented exclusively by economic factors and the materials heretofore considered for purposes of making policy decisions. During the first two years of its activity, the Barilla Center for Food & Nutrition (BCFN) has dealt with a number of topics connected with diet and nutrition that, by their nature, directly or indirectly, concretely affect conditions of personal well-being. The goal of the work performed by the BCFN on this subject is therefore that of including and evaluating, within a multidimensional index for the measurement and comparison of the level of well-being of the people in a selected group of developed countries, the element connected with the diet and lifestyles. This document therefore marks the start by the BCF&N of a process characterized by the desire to contribute to the attainment of this ambitious goal involving, along the way, professional qualifications, skills, knowledge and the cooperation of anyone who can bring a constructive contribution to the subject.

In the light of the FAO data, according to which over a billion people suffer from hunger, access to food is one of the most significant and important challenges that the world's population will have to face in the near future. It is very clear that the question of food security, due to its obvious complexity, must be dealt with in a coordinated manner at all the different levels of action: economic, political, environmental and social. The document is a thorough, in-depth examination of all the problems of global access to food, and indicates four decisive lines of action: from strengthening the mechanisms of governance, to increasing agricultural production, from control of the volatility of prices to efficient management of the subject of dietary styles.